The following is a response I wrote to a posting on another cop page, wherein a British police officer disputed the claim that England crime rates are higher than in America. I feel it is important to challenge those false impressions whenever we face them, because our own domestic Liberals tend to use those misconceptions to tout a disarmed England as a relative crime-free paradise, whose example we should follow by banning all guns in the U.S.

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Dear Jim:

Why do we keep beating each other up??? (I'll get to that question in a minute...) But first the statistics you chastised me for lacking...

YOU REPLIED: "It is very much lower. You are reading various distorted statistics peddled by the media." OUCH! That hurt. I'll have you know I have always tried my best to hold the "media" in the lowest possible regard.

My point was that Robert stated a percentage based solely upon his perception. The problem with that approach is that you could get a dozen different perceptions from a dozen different officers working in the very same town, and in reality, all twelve could be wrong. Certainly if two or more are different, something ain't right. That's why I question perception.

My cite for the original stat is: Dr. John Lott, "More Guns, Less Crime, Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws" 2nd Ed. (2000): 5., but the actual source is cited below.

YOU ALSO SAID: "those particular figures are not recorded [referring to the percentage of dwellings that are occupied during burglaries], so In his 18 years experience of UK policing, he guesses. Being that the figures are not recorded, it looks to me that your assertion is the one that should be questioned, as it appears to be absent both statistics and the 18 years UK policing experience..."

OUCH, AGAIN!! Are we being nasty, now? I'm surprise that you aren't aware of your own governments statistics. In fact, those figures ARE recorded.

To be precise, in 46% (pretty damn close to the "half" I referred to) of all England/Wales burglaries someone was at home at the time. Twenty-Five percent of the occupants were aware of the intruder, and violence or threatening behavior was used in 11% of ALL burglaries. (Source: "Burglary of Domestic Dwellings, Issue 4/99", Research Development and Statistics Directorate, Home Office)

THEN YOU SAID: crime "...is very much lower" in England than in the U.S....

Wrong again, my friend. The best source at the moment for the comparative statistics is:

"Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96" by: Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D. (BJS Statistician) and David P. Farrington, Ph.D. (BJS Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge (a countryman of your's, I believe)), October 1998, NCJ169284. This is a comprehensive, 15-year study, published by the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), which concludes that crime rates are higher in England and Wales than in the U.S. (and yes, Jim... they use "per-capita" analysis.)

I never said that England's murder rate was higher than the U.S. I said that you are more likely to be strangled to death in England. The murder rate in the U.S. in 1981 was 8.7-times England's, but by 1996 had narrowed to 5.7-times. That remarkable 34% reduction was the exclusive result of the U.S. lowering its rate. In fact, the difference would have been narrower, except that England's rate went up slightly during the same period. If the US-England disparity continues narrowing at the same rate for another 30 years, as it has for the last 15, England's murder rate will surpass the U.S.

Can it happen? Well, recent reports indicate that England's violent crime rate is climbing at about 10%/yr, which doesn't bode well for those defending the impression of lower crime in England vs the U.S., so I'd say that it appears statistically possible, if not probable.

But we were discussing all crime, not just murder, so lets look at some of the others. The above study found that robbery, assault, burglary and vehicle theft were all higher in the England/Wales; ie: In 1981, the U.S. robbery rate was nearly double England's. By 1995, the English robbery rate was 1.4-times America's.

In 1981, the English assault rate was slightly higher than the U.S.'s, but by 1995 the English assault rate grew to more than double America's.

In 1981, the U.S. burglary rate was more than double England's. By 1995, the English burglary rate was more than double America's. A mirror flip-flop. In 1981, the English motor vehicle theft rate was 1.5-times the U.S. By 1995, that spread had widened to more than double America's rate.

By the way, the rest of the list looks like this:

Italy (the worst, with 2.6%), followed by New Zealand (2.5%), Greece (2.2%), Austria (2.1%), Australia (2%), Japan (1.8%), England & Wales (1.8%), Finland (1.7%), The Netherlands (1.5%), Switzerland (1.4%), France (1%), Sweden (0.9%), Canada (0.7%), Ireland (0.6%), Denmark (0.1%), Northern Ireland (0.1%), USA (-0.3%), Spain (-0.7%) and Scotland (-1.2%).

Also, the British Home Office reports in the comparative standardized "International Crime Victims Survey", conducted in 1988, 1991 and 1995, that England & Wales placed roughly in the middle of the pack, below Canada and the U.S. in 1988 & 1991. BUT, in 1995 placed second, after only The Netherlands. In 1995 the U.S. placed 7th, after The Netherlands, England & Wales, Switzerland, Scotland, France and Canada. Even more telling, for contact crime (robbery, sexual and other assaults) England and Wales came in #1, although in 1988 it had come in at the bottom. (Source: The 1996 International Crime Victimization Survey (Home Office Research Findings No. 57)). Here's another stat that adds an interesting twist to the relentless rise in England/Wales(E/W) crime numbers:

The ratio of violent crimes recorded compared to the number of E/W serving police officers was 0.4 in 1958, but has steadily climbed to 2.8 in 1997; a 700% increase (about 18%/yr.)!

But what's more interesting is, in 1958 there were 1.59 E/W cops/1000 population (almost exactly the cop/pop ratio of the San Diego PD TODAY!), but by 1997 there were 2.51 E/W cops/1000 pops. So, although the number of E/W police officers rose by more than 67%, the ratio of crimes-to-cops continued to climb by 700% during the same period. It wouldn't be so bad if the cop numbers dropped or even remained static, but when the crime ratios increase along with the cop numbers, that's what I'd call a double wammy. (Source: "Forty Years of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics, 1958 to 1997", Research Development and Statistics Directorate, Home Office.)

Frankly, if San Diego experienced the same rise in crime, they wouldn't hire 67% more cops, they'd boot some policymakers out on their butts. And they should! Which brings me back to my first question: Why do we keep beating each other up?

The crime rates are what they are, both in England and in the U.S., and they speak for themselves. The reason I've even bothered to run with this thread is because in America we have a liberal community, supported by a liberal press, that constantly float the notion that a disarmed England is a relative crime-free paradise; therefore America should disarm too. That's a ridiculous notion, and whenever it flies by I have this uncontrollable urge to shoot it down. It doesn't help when one of the Brotherhood from England lends credence to it.

I don't mean for any of my postings to be a personal attack on anyone. If someone wants to fault the statistics I've posted, they are welcome to look them up. I didn't produce or publish them.

Peace, brother.

Alan Asker
San Diego PD (Ret.)
alanasker@yahoo.com